Feature by Jordan Cronk & Matthew Lucas: As they did last year, our two section Editors Luke Gorham and Jordan Cronk assess the Oscar race with InRO’s monthly Chasing Gold column, beginning with the major categories and adding others as we get closer to the big date. Expect a new Chasing Gold the first week of each month [late this month...] leading up to nomination day in January, and on into February right up to the 2010 awards ceremony—with special columns in between for the Golden Globes and other relevant precursors. We’ve hit many of the major film festivals this year, from Tribeca to Cannes Toronto last month, where we got to see many of the films said to be in contention. So stick with us this season for thorough coverage of the race as it takes shape.

Note: Staff Writer Matthew Lucas fills in for Film Editor Luke Gorham this month

Best Picture: Can you hear that? Yeah, neither can I; this is the calm before the onslaught of critic’s awards begins in early December. Most pundits already have a potential slate of Best Picture nominees lined up—add or subtract a single man, a basterd, or an avatar where applicable—and patiently await the announcement of the National Board of Review's traditionally puzzling top 10 list (which carries even more weight this particular year, considering the Best Picture category has itself been expanded to 10 nominees). As such, not much has changed in the last month, save the complete and utter dismantling of “Amelia”—this season’s lamb for the slaughter, it would seem. With the exception of “Crazy Heart” finding year-end distribution and “The Last Station” garnering strong word-of-mouth—and thus sending Oscar watchers scrambling to fit it into a variety of shaky categories—only “Precious” has stepped up its game, further emboldening its status as the de-facto frontrunner. In addition, the trailer for Clint Eastwood's “Invictus” saw its debut in the last month, receiving satisfied if not overly enthusiastic notices; both “An Education” and “Up in the Air” continue to look like solid bets based on the power generated by their lauded leads, a stable of worthy supporting performances, and solid screenplays; and “The Hurt Locker" continues to stay relevant despite its mid-summer release. Of course, the three big wild cards (“Avatar,” “The Lovely Bones” and “Nine”) are still a few weeks away from being seen and in turn judged by anyone. The only other unseen contender, however, which few seem to be talking about, is Jim Sheridan’s “Brothers.” By evidence of the trailer, it could prove to be more of an acting showcase, but if “In America” taught us anything, it’s never to count out a last minute surge from the beloved Irish auteur. And lastly, it’ll be interesting to chart the critics award run for movies such as “Where the Wild Things Are,” “The Road” and “Julie & Juilia,” films passionately championed, but potentially too dark (or, in the latter's case, too light) to garner true in-contention status. --Jordan Cronk

Matthew’s Predictions:

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1.Precious (Lionsgate)
   

2. 2.Invictus (Warner Bros.)
   

3. 3.The Hurt Locker (Summit Entertainment)
   

4. 4.Up in the Air (Paramount)
   

5. 5.An Education (Sony Classics)
   

6. 6.A Serious Man (Focus Features)
   

7. 7.Nine (Weinstein Company)
   

8. 8.Up (Buena Vista)
   

9. 9.The Lovely Bones (DreamWorks)
   

10. 10.Bright Star (Apparition)    
    

In the Running: 11. A Single Man (Weinstein Company); 12. Inglourious Basterds (Weinstein Company); 13. The Road (Weinstein Company/Dimension); 14. Avatar (Fox); 15. Julie & Julia (Sony/Columbia); 16. District 9 (TriStar); 17. Capitalism: A Love Story (Overture Films); 18. Star Trek (Paramount); 19. Where the Wild Things Are (Warner Bros.); 20. Public Enemies (Universal)

Jordan’s Predictions:

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1.Precious (Lionsgate)
   

2. 2.Up in the Air (Paramount)
   

3. 3.The Hurt Locker (Summit Entertainment)
   

4. 4.Invictus (Warner Bros.)
   

5. 5.Nine (Weinstein Company)
   

6. 6.An Education (Sony Classics)
   

7. 7.The Lovely Bones (DreamWorks)
   

8. 8.Up (Buena Vista)
   

9. 9.A Serious Man (Focus Features)
   

10. 10.A Single Man (Weinstein Company)
    

In the Running: 11. The Last Station; 12. Inglourious Basterds (Weinstein Company); 13. Bright Star (Apparition); 14. Avatar (Fox); 15. Where the Wild Things Are (Warner Bros.); 16. Julie & Julia (Sony/Columbia); 17. Crazy Heart (Fox Searchlight); 18. The Road (Weinstein Company/Dimension); 19. Brothers (Lionsgate); 20. It’s Complicated (Universal)

Best Director: If the pundits are to be believed, 2009 is indeed a year for the women; and the one female director whose film seems to have the legs to go all the way is Kathryn Bigelow (“The Hurt Locker”). Whether the film makes it into Best Picture or not (and it almost certainly will), one thing seems certain, and that's that Bigelow is the one to beat, at this point, in the directing category. Of course, there’s always Clint Eastwood, whose “Invictus” is still the great unknown of the season; it’s hard to bet against Clint, and after his “Gran Torino” got snubbed last year, the Academy may be ready to welcome him back into the fold. Then there's Jason Reitman, who was previously nominated in 2007 for “Juno.” A nod here for his latest, “Up in the Air,” would be a gesture of good faith for his maturing craft, and would prove that his success with “Juno” was not a fluke. Of course, the big indie story of the moment is “Precious,” a film that's cooked up so much heat as a Best Picture frontrunner that it will most likely earn its director, Lee Daniels, a nod as well. The fifth slot is a little harder to call, but I’m going with Rob Marshall's “Nine.” The director's “Chicago” won Best Picture in 2002, but failed to win Marshall himself an Oscar. If “Nine” catches on, another nod for Marshall seems likely. --Matthew Lucas

Matthew’s Predictions:

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1.Kathryn Bigelow (“The Hurt Locker”)
   

2. 2.Clint Eastwood (“Invictus”)
   

3. 3.Jason Reitman (“Up in the Air”)
   

4. 4.Lee Daniels (“Precious”)
   

5. 5.Rob Marshall (“Nine”)    
   

In the Running: 06. Lone Scherfig (“An Education”); 07. Peter Jackson (“The Lovely Bones”); 08. Joel & Ethan Coen (“A Serious Man”); 09. Jane Campion (“Bright Star”) 10. John Hillcoat (“The Road”); 11. Tom Ford (“A Single Man”); 12. James Cameron (“Avatar”); 13. Michael Haneke (“The White Ribbon”); 14. Quentin Tarantino (“Inglourious Basterds”); 15. J.J. Abrams (“Star Trek”); 16. Neil Blompkamp (“District 9”); 17. Jacques Audiard (“A Prophet”); 18. Lars Von Trier (“Antichrist”) 19. Spike Jonze (“Where the Wild Things Are”); 20. Ji, Sheridan (“Brothers”)

Jordan’s Predictions:

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1.Kathryn Bigelow (“The Hurt Locker”)
   

2. 2.Lee Daniels (“Precious”)
   

3. 3.Jason Reitman (“Up in the Air”)
   

4. 4.Clint Eastwood (“Invictus”)
   

5. 5.Rob Marshall (“Nine”)
   

In the Running: 06. Peter Jackson (“The Lovely Bones”); 07. Lone Scherfig (“An Education”); 08. Jacques Audiard (“A Prophet”); 09. Joel & Ethan Coen (“A Serious Man”); 10. Quentin Tarantino (“Inglourious Basterds”); 11. Jane Campion (“Bright Star”); 12. Tom Ford (“A Single Man”); 13. Spike Jonze (“Where the Wild Things Are”); 14. James Cameron (“Avatar”); 15. John Hillcoat (“The Road”); 16. Michael Haneke (“The White Ribbon”); 17. Jim Sheridan (“Brothers”) 18. Neill Blomkamp (“District 9”); 19. Scott Cooper (“Crazy Heart”); 20. Pedro Almodovar (“Broken Embraces”)

Best Actress: Despite a bit of jumping around (“Up in the Air’s" Vera Farmiga is back to supporting and Maggie Gyllenhaal has been unexpectedly campaigned as a lead for “Crazy Heart”), this category feels the most secure at this point. Already there seems to be four all-but-sure bets: Carey Mulligan as the naïve schoolgirl in “An Education; Gabourey Sidibe as the titular abused illiterate of “Precious”; Meryl Streep as American cooking icon Julia Child in “Julie & Julia”; and now Helen Mirren as Leo Tolstoy’s wife in the recently picked up “The Last Station.” So give or take one of those slots, there are only about four legitimate contenders for the final spot. However, with that being said, the aforementioned Gyllenhaal may be overshadowed by her co-star, Jeff Bridges, in ”Crazy Heart,” while “Bright Star” looks to be more of a shooting star by awards season standards, hurting the chances of a deserving Abbie Cornish as the film continues to fade from memory. On the other hand, with the release dates of their respective films still forthcoming, both Marion Cotillard (“Nine”) and Saoirse Ronan (“The Lovely Bones”) have the added advantage of sustained buzz—which could still potentially be crushed once the films open, but at this juncture should be seen as a strength. So with those 8 leading the field, it would seem that there would need to be a serious critical run for an actress such as Penelope Cruz (“Broken Embraces”) to fight her way into contention. And, unfortunately, the Best Actress category is one which has a tendency to solidify early on, as voters huddle around buzzed-about performances instead of looking outside the box and to less visible contenders, which this year has given us no shortage of. --Jordan Cronk

Matthew’s Predictions:

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1.Carey Mulligan (“An Education”)
   

2. 2.Meryl Streep (“Julie & Julia”)
   

3. 3.Gabourey Sidibe (“Precious”)
   

4. 4.Helen Mirren (“The Last Station”)
   

5. 5.Abbie Cornish (“Bright Star”)    
   

In the Running: 06. Hilary Swank (“Amelia”); 07. Saorsie Ronan (“The Lovely Bones”); 08. Audrey Tautou (“Coco Before Chanel”); 09. Tilda Swinton (“Julia”); 10. Sandra Bullock (“The Blind Side”); 11. Penelope Cruz (“Broken Embraces”); 12. Marion Cotillard (“Nine”); 13. Natalie Portman (“Brothers”); 14. Emily Blunt (“The Young Victoria”); 15. Charlotte Gainsbourg (“Antichrist”); 16. Michelle Pfeiffer (“Cheri”); 17. Robin Wright Penn (“The Private Lives of Pippa Lee”); 18. Shohreh Aghdashloo (“The Stoning of Soraya M.”); 19. Michelle Monaghan (“Trucker”); 20. Zooey Deschanel (“500 Days of Summer”)

Jordan’s Predictions:

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1.Carey Mulligan (“An Education”)
   

2. 2.Gabourey Sidibe (“Precious”)
   

3. 3.Helen Mirren (“The Last Station”)
   

4. 4.Meryl Streep (“Julie & Julia”)
   

5. 5.Saorsie Ronan (“The Lovely Bones”)
   

In the Running: 06. Abbie Cornish (“Bright Star”); 07. Marion Cotillard (“Nine”); 08. Meryl Streep (“It’s Complicated”); 09. Penelope Cruz (“Broken Embraces”); 10. Audrey Tatou (“Coco Before Chanel”); 11. Michelle Mohahan (“Trucker”); 12. Robin Wright Penn (“The Private Lives of Pippa Lee”); 13. Tilda Swinton (“Julia”); 14. Katie Jarvis (“Fish Tank”); 15. Emily Blunt (“The Young Victoria”); 16. Shohreh Agdashloo (“The Stoning of Soraya M.”); 17. Michelle Pheiffer (“Cheri”); 18. Zooey Deschanel (“500 Days of Summer”); 19. Charlize Theron (“The Burning Plain”); 20. Gwyneth Paltrow (“Two Lovers”)

Best Actor: Here’s a little math lesson: Morgan Freeman + Nelson Mandela = Oscargasm. It’s one of those perfect pairings of actor and role that the Academy just can’t ignore. And even though no one has seen “Invictus” yet, it’s hard to imagine Freeman not getting a nod here. Ditto George Clooney, who's been getting quite a bit of Oscar attention for “Up in the Air.” “A Single Man” may or may not be headed for a Best Picture nomination, but a nod for Colin Firth here seems like more of a sure bet. After those three, look to some less buzzed about movies for potential nominees. I for one think Hal Holbrook was robbed in 2007 for his heartbreaking work in “Into the Wild,” and Oscar loves a veteran, which could carry his performance in the little seen “That Evening Sun” to a nomination. Also, buzz has suddenly appeared for Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart,” and while it may be premature to put him so high on the list, he’s another overdue veteran with a juicy role as a washed up country music singer. Things may change as the precursors start coming out, but for now the buzz is with him. --Matthew Lucas

Matthew’s Predictions:

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1.Morgan Freeman ("Invictus")
   

2. 2.George Clooney ("Up in the Air")
   

3. 3.Colin Firth ("A Single Man")
   

4. 4.Hal Holbrook ("That Evening Sun")
   

5. 5.Jeff Bridges ("Crazy Heart")     
   

In the Running: 06. Jeremy Renner (“The Hurt Locker”); 07. Daniel Day-Lewis (“Nine”); 08. Viggo Mortenson (“The Road”); 09. Peter Sarsgaard (“An Education”); 10. Matt Damon (“The Informant!”); 11. Michael Stuhlbarg (“A Serious Man”); 12. Sam Rockwell (“Moon”); 13. Ben Foster (“The Messenger”); 14. Robert DeNiro (“Everybody’s Fine”); 15. Ben Wishaw (“Bright Star”); 16. James McAvoy (“The Last Station”); 17. Hugh Dancy (“Adam”); 18. Tamar Rahim (“A Prophet”); 19. Clive Owen (“The Boys Are Back”); 20. Jake Gyllenhaal (“Brothers”)

Jordan’s Predictions:

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1.Morgan Freeman (“Invictus”)
   

2. 2.George Clooney (“Up in the Air”)
   

3. 3.Daniel Day-Lewis (“Nine”)
   

4. 4.Colin Firth (“A Single Man”)
   

5. 5.Jeff Bridges ("Crazy Heart")
   

In the Running: 06. Jeremy Renner (“The Hurt Locker”); 07. Viggo Mortensen (“The Road”); 08. Matt Damon (“The Informant!”); 09. Michael Sheen (“The Damned United”); 10. Tamar Rahim (“A Prophet”); 11. Tobey Maguire (“Brothers”); 12. Michael Stuhlbarg (“A Serious Man”); 13. Hal Holbrook (“That Evening Sun”); 14. Ben Wishaw (“Bright Star”); 15. James McAvoy (“The Last Station”); 16. Robert Deniro (“Everyone’s Fine”); 17. Sharlto Copley (“District 9”); 18. Sam Rockwell (“Moon”); 19. Paul Bettany (“Creation”); 20. Clive Owen (“The Boys Are Back”)

Best Supporting Actor: The jaded amongst us retreat to the hard-to-predict supporting actor categories for some excitement in the yearly Oscar race. This is due in no small part to various outside influences that play an even greater role in deciding who gets a nomination. Leading the supporting males is twenty-years-late breakthrough Christoph Waltz, the sinister (and funny) Nazi general in Quentin Tarantino’s fan-boy approved “Inglourious Basterds.” Many have Waltz pegged as the forgone winner, but I’d hesitate to make any final predictions—Tarantino’s film hasn't exactly won over high-brow critics and has, at the moment, only a shaky shot at the Best Picture race. Complicating things further are three well-respected actors looking for their first-ever Oscar nominations. Veteran Christopher Plummer seems like a shoo-in for his work as Leo Tolstoy in “The Last Station,” while the perpetually under-the-radar Alfred Molina is earning raves as Carey Mulligan’s huffy father in “An Education.” And after a career as one of America’s most reliable character actors, Stanley Tucci looks to build on his “Julie & Julia” goodwill with a sinister turn as a pedophile in Peter Jackson’s “The Lovely Bones.”  If either Tucci or Plummer can catch a wave of precursor gold, I’d look to them to unseat Waltz as the penciled-in frontrunner. And then of course there's Matt Damon, who seems destined to score a nomination for at least one of his high profile roles this year. His work opposite lead actor hopeful Morgan Freeman in “Invictus,” rather than his zany lead in “The Informant!,” looks to be his best shot, and he therefore rounds out my solid list of five contenders. Waiting in the wings are category-jumper Peter Sarsgaard (“An Education”), newcomer Christian McKay (“Me and Orson Welles”), and Anthony Mackie (“The Hurt Locker”). So, in other words, the precursors will play a major role in what performances Academy members even take the time to see, and if the critics start grouping around any one of these actors, look for them to grab a hold of this race. --Jordan Cronk

Matthew’s Predictions:

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1.Christoph Waltz ("Inglourious Basterds")
   

2. 2.Alfred Molina ("An Education")
   

3. 3.Christopher Plummer ("The Last Station")
   

4. 4.Matt Damon ("Invictus")
   

5. 5.Stanley Tucci (“The Lovely Bones”)     
   

In the Running: 06. Peter Sarsgaard (“An Education”); 07. Anthony Mackie (“The Hurt Locker”); 08. Christian McKay (“Me and Orson Welles”); 09. Woody Harrelson (“The Messenger”); 10. Robert Duvall (“The Road”); 11. Stanley Tucci (“Julie & Julia”); 12. Paul Schneider (“Bright Star”); 13. Paul Giamatti (“The Last Station”); 14. Richard Kind (“A Serious Man”); 15. Jake Gyllenhaal (“Brothers”); 16. Robert Duvall (“Crazy Heart”); 17. Rupert Friend (“The Young Victoria”); 18. Alec Baldwin (“It’s Complicated”); 19. Kodi Smit-McPhee (“The Road”); 20. Tobey Maguire (“Brothers”)

Jordan’s Predictions:

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1.Christoph Waltz (“Inglourious Basterds”)
   

2. 2.Christopher Plummer ("The Last Station")
   

3. 3.Stanley Tucci (“The Lovely Bones”)
   

4. 4.Alfred Molina ("An Education")
   

5. 5.Matt Damon ("Invictus")
   

In the Running: 06. Peter Sarsgaard (“An Education”); 07. Christian McKay (“Me and Orson Welles”); 08. Alec Baldwin (“It’s Complicated”); 09. Anthony Mackie (“The Hurt Locker”); 10. Richard Kind (“A Serious Man”); 11. Paul Schneider (“Bright Star”); 12. Peter Capaldi (“In the Loop”); 13. Robert Duvall (“The Road”); 14. Heath Ledger (“The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus”); 15. Woody Harrelson (“The Messenger”); 16. Jake Gyllenhaal (“Brothers”); 17. Jude Law (“Sherlock Holmes”); 18. Rupert Friend (“The Young Victoria”); 19. Kodi-Scott McPhee (“The Road”); 20. Tobey Jones (“Creation”)

Best Supporting Actress: This is a notoriously unpredictable category, with left field nominations often upsetting out of nowhere. The “it” performance of the moment is doubtlessly Mo’Nique in “Precious,” although after being quoted dissing the Oscars, Academy voters may not be as likely to reward her; she’s pretty much a lock for a nomination though. Also getting a lot of buzz is Anna Kendrick’s performance in “Up in the Air,” and if the movie does as well with the Academy as it’s supposed to, then she probably doesn’t have anything to worry about. I can see “A Single Man” doing better in the acting categories than in the Best Picture category, so I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Julianne Moore, a previous nominee in this category for “The Hours,” turn up here. After that it gets murky. Which one of “Nine’s” lovely ladies will be up for a nomination? It’s an Oscar baiting cast filled with supporting performances, and Penelope Cruz seems the most likely; she won here last year for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona.” For the last slot, I’m going to go out on a limb a bit with Samantha Morton, whose highly praised work in “The Messenger” is just the kind of wild card this category is known for. She’s been nominated before, but never won, and she’s due. --Matthew Lucas

Matthew’s Predictions:

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1.Mo’Nique ("Precious")
   

2. 2.Anna Kendrick ("Up in the Air")
   

3. 3.Julianne Moore (“A Single Man”)
   

4. 4.Penelope Cruz (“Nine”)
   

5. 5.Samantha Morton ("The Messenger")     
   

In the Running: 06. Rachel Weisz (“The Lovely Bones”); 07. Marion Cotillard (“Public Enemies”); 08. Judi Dench (“Nine”); 09. Mariah Carey (“Precious”); 10. Melanie Laurent (“Inglourious Basterds”); 11. Natalie Portman (“Brothers”); 12. Vera Farmiga (“Up in the Air”); 13. Susan Sarandon (“The Lovely Bones”); 14. Sari Lennick (“A Serious Man”); 15. Rosamund Pike (“An Education”); 16. Emma Thompson (“An Education”); 17. Imelda Staunton (“Taking Woodstock”); 18. Charlize Theron (“The Road”); 19. Nicole Kidman (“Nine”); 20. Catherine Keener (“Where the Wild Things Are”)

Jordan’s Predictions:

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1.Mo’Nique (“Precious”)
   

2. 2.Anna Kendrick (“Up in the Air”)
   

3. 3.Julianne Moore (“A Single Man”)
   

4. 4.Penelope Cruz (“Nine”)
   

5. 5.Susan Sarandon (“The Lovely Bones”)
   

In the Running: 06. Vera Farmiga (“Up in the Air”); 07. Judi Dench (“Nine”); 08. Maggie Gyllenhaal (“Crazy Heart”); 09. Melanie Laurent (“Inglourious Basterds”); 10. Marion Cotillard (“Public Enemies”); 11. Rachel Weisz (“The Lovely Bones”); 12. Emma Thompson (“An Education”); 13. Samantha Morton (“The Messenger”); 14. Mariah Carey (“Precious”); 15. Rosamund Pike (“An Education”); 16. Natalie Portman (“Brothers”); 17. Sari Lennick (“A Serious Man”); 18. Sophia Lauren (“Nine”); 19. Catherine Kenner (“Where the Wild Things Are”); 20. Charlize Theron (“The Road”)

Best Adapted Screenplay: The three big films that have already been seen by general audiences have an advantage in this year’s Adapted Screenplay race. Damien Paul has shot to the lead in this category based on the surplus of festival awards and outstanding limited-release box office numbers "Precious" has corralled so far. The content and tone of the film may eventually sideline it to more traditionally safe contenders such as sure-fire nominees Nick Hornby (“An Education”) and Jason Reitman (“Up in the Air,” a collaborative script penned with Sheldon Turner). However, I doubt the former will have the across the board love necessary to carry it to a win here. Meanwhile, the triple-headed middle-earth writing team of Fran Walsh, Phillipa Boyens and Peter Jackson pose the biggest threat to these frontrunners, though the film’s critical approval is imperative for it to make the kind of impact many are hoping it can. “The Road” and “Nine” will probably stay in the conversation for the duration of the season as well, though the desolate realism of the former will probably prove too much for this branch, while a musical stands little chance regardless of pedigree. Two late comers (“Crazy Heart” and “The Last Station”) could make a run if well received, each looking to be carried along by their touted performances. And, of course, “Brothers” still looms, though as I mentioned earlier, the film looks like more of an acting showcase then a writer’s piece. But when in doubt, always align oneself with the strongest Best Picture candidate and go from there. --Jordan Cronk

Matthew’s Predictions:

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1.Precious (Damien Paul)
   

2. 2.An Education (Nick Hornby)
   

3. 3.Up in the Air (Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner)
   

4. 4.The Lovely Bones (Philippa Boyens, Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh)
   

5. 5.Invictus (Anthony Peckham)    
   

In the Running: 06. A Single Man (Tom Ford) 07. Nine (Anthony Minghella, Michael Tolkin); 08. Julie & Julia (Nora Ephron); 09. The Last Station (Michael Hoffman); 10. The Road (Joe Penhall); 11. Brothers (David Benioff); 12. Crazy Heart (Scott Cooper); 13. The Informant! (Scott Z. Burns); 14. The Private Lives of Pippa Lee (Rebecca Miller); 15. Where the Wild Things Are (David Eggars, Spike Jonze); 16. Public Enemies (Ronan Bennett, Ann Biderman, Michael Mann); 17. Julia (Michael Collins, Camille Natta, Aude Py, Erick Zonca); 18. A Prophet (Thomas Bidegain, Jacques Audiard); 19. Disgrace (Anna Maria Monticelli); 20. Everybody’s Fine (Kirk Jones)

Jordan’s Predictions:

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1.Precious (Damien Paul)
   

2. 2.Up in the Air (Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner)
   

3. 3.An Education (Nick Hornby)
   

4. 4.The Lovely Bones (Philippa Boyens, Peter Jackson, Fran Walsh)
   

5. 5.A Single Man (Tom Ford)    
   

In the Running: 06. Invictus (Anthony Peckman); 07. The Last Station (Michael Hoffman); 08. Crazy Heart (Scott Cooper); 09. Nine (Anthony Minghella & Michael Tolkin); 10. A Prophet (Jacques Audiard & Thomas Bidegain); 11. The Road (Joe Penhall); 12. Where the Wild Things Are (Spike Jonze & David Eggers); 13. The Informant! (Scott Z. Burns); 14. Brothers (David Benioff); 15. Julie & Julia (Nora Ephron); 16. The Private Lives of Pippa Lee (Rebecca Miller); 17. Disgrace (Anna Maria Monticelli); 18. Everybody’s Fine (Kirk Jones); 19. Julia (Michael Collins, Camilla Natta, Aude Py & Erick Zonka); 20. Public Enemies (Ronan Bennett, Ann Biderman & Michael Mann)

Best Original Screenplay: If history has taught us anything about the Academy, it’s that they keep one screenplay slot open for Pixar, which means the acclaimed “Up” is a shoo-in here. And since this category tends to be a place where outside-the-box fare that doesn’t get a Best Picture nod (see “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind”) is rewarded, this may be where the Coen Brothers’ “A Serious Man” gets its chance at gold. “The Hurt Locker,” on the other hand, may be more about the directing than the writing, but it’s hard to deny the screenplay’s tough power, so expect the heat to carry it to a nod here. And since there always seems to be one quirky indie nominated, this year look to “500 Days of Summer” to fill that spot. This will probably be the only category it appears in, and it deserves it. As for what's given the fifth slot, as is the case for most categories at this point, that's anyone's guess. “Bright Star” has the prestige, and success in other categories may carry it to a nod here. But don’t count out Tarantino’s “Inglourious Basterds.” He hasn’t been a force at the Oscars since “Pulp Fiction,” and he may return here. --Mathew Lucas

Matthew’s Predictions:

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1.Up (Bob Peterson)
   

2. 2.A Serious Man (Joel & Ethan Coen)
   

3. 3.The Hurt Locker (Mark Boal)
   

4. 4.500 Days of Summer (Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Webber)
   

5. 5.Bright Star (Jane Campion)   
   

In the Running: 06. Inglourious Basterds (Quentin Tarantino); 07. The White Ribbon (Jean-Claude Carriere, Michael Haneke); 08. Avatar (James Cameron); 09. Broken Embraces (Pedro Almodovar); 10. It’s Complicated (Nancy Meyers); 11. Funny People (Judd Apatow); 12. The Messenger (Allesandro Camon, Oren Moverman); 13. Whatever Works (Woody Allen); 14. District 9 (Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tetchell); 15. The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus (Terry Gilliam, Charles McKeown); 16. In the Loop (Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche); 17. The Young Victoria (Julian Fellowes); 18. Big Fan (Robert D. Siegel); 19. Away We Go (Dave Eggers, Vendela Vida); 20. Pirate Radio (Richard Curtis)

Jordan’s Predictions:

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1.Up (Bob Peterson)
   

2. 2.The Hurt Locker (Mark Boal)
   

3. 3.A Serious Man (Joel & Ethan Coen)
   

4. 4.500 Days of Summer (Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Webber)
   

5. 5.Inglourious Basterds (Quentin Tarantino)
   

In the Running: 06. The White Ribbon (Jean-Claude Carriere & Michael Haneke); 07. Bright Star (Jane Campion); 08. District 9 (Neill Blomkamp & Terri Tatchell); 09. Broken Embraces (Pedro Almodovar); 10. Avatar (James Cameron); 11. It’s Complicated (Nancy Meyers); 12. The Messenger (Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman); 13. In the Loop (Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Ian Martin & Tony Roche); 14. Fish Tank (Andrea Arnold); 15. The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus (Terry Gilliam & Charles McKeown); 16. Pirate Radio (Richard Curtis); 17. The Young Victoria (Julian Fellowes); 18. Moon (Nathan Parker); 19. Big Fan (Robert Siegel); 20. The Burning Plain (Guillermo Arriaga)

Best Animated Feature: After weeks of speculation, a whopping 20 films have been submitted for consideration in the Best Animated Film category, four more than necessary to expand the slate of nominees to five. We still may not have much of a race on our hands, however, with "Up” leading the field by a wide margin. Even still, an upset may occur if “Up” does eventually earn a nomination in the Best Picture category; and voters may choose to throw their votes to any number of legitimate contenders. “Coraline” continues to do well on DVD, while “Ponyo” has the critical community behind it in a major way. And if we go by box office tally, “Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs” would be the most obvious replacement for “Up,” but the film could prove too slight, even by animation standards. I wouldn’t be surprised then, in a year of animated resurgence, if the branch looked toward the classic hand-drawn animation of “The Princess and the Frog,” if only as a response to the growing number of CGI efforts. Of course, then you must weigh the possibilities of two other distinct, high profile releases—those being “A Christmas Carol” and “The Fantastic Mr. Fox.” I really don’t see this branch getting over their odd biases against stop motion and motion capture techniques, but with 'Fox' in particular grabbing some unexpected critical kudos early on, these certainly shouldn’t be discounted. Meanwhile, “Mary and Max” feels a little too "small" to catch on, but early word's been strong, so it’s another one to keep an eye out for. --Jordan Cronk

Matthew’s Predictions:

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1.Up (Buena Vista)
   

2. 2.Ponyo (Buena Vista)
   

3. 3.Coraline (Focus Features)
   

4. 4.The Fantastic Mr. Fox (Fox)
   

5. 5.The Princess and the Frog (Buena Vista)
   

In the Running: 06. 9 (Focus Features); 07. A Town Called Panic (Zeitgeist); 08. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs (Sony/Columbia); 09. A Christmas Carol (Buena Vista); 10. Monsters vs. Aliens (DreamWorks); 11. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (Fox); 12. Planet 51 (Sony/Columbia); 13. Astro Boy (Summit Entertainment); 14. The Dolphin: Story of a Dreamer (Fox); 15. The Secret of Kells (Buena Vista)

Jordan’s Predictions:

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1.Up (Buena Vista)
   

2. 2.Coraline (Focus Features)
   

3. 3.Ponyo (Buena Vista)
   

4. 4.Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs (Sony/Columbia)
   

5. 5.The Princess and the Frog (Buena Vista)
   

In the Running: 06. The Fantastic Mr. Fox (Fox); 07. Mary and Max (Icon Entertainment); 08. A Christmas Carol (Buena Vista); 09. 9 (Focus Features); 10. Monsters vs. Aliens (DreamWorks); 11. Planet 51 (Sony/Columbia); 12. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (Fox); 13. A Town Called Panic (Zeitgeist); 14. Battle for Terra (Lionsgate); 15. Astro Boy (Summit Entertainment)

Best Foreign Language Feature: This is one of the hardest categories to predict before the Academy releases the narrowed down shortlist. Only two films really stick out here, France’s “A Prophet” and Germany’s Palme d’Or winning “The White Ribbon.” While “A Prophet” will probably fare better with the Academy, one can’t help but wonder if the bleak subject matter and ambiguous ending may turn off the older Academy voters. But its high profile makes it impossible to ignore. After that it gets really tough to call, as many of these films are virtually unknown at this point. Korea’s “Mother” saw good reviews out of Cannes, and Canada’s “I Killed My Mother” has picked up some decent buzz. Unfortunately, the Academy has soundly ignored the Romanian New Wave, so I don’t expect to see the acclaimed “Police, Adjective” show up in this notoriously sentimental category. --Matthew Lucas

Matthew’s Predictions:

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1.A Prophet (France)
   

2. 2.The White Ribbon (Germany)
   

3. 3.Mother (Korea)
   

4. 4.I Killed My Mother (Canada)
   

5. 5.Terribly Happy (Denmark)
   

In the Running: 06. Forever Enthralled (China); 07. Baaria (Italy); 08. Ajami (Israel); 09. Winter in Wartime (Netherlands); 10. Max Manus (Norway); 11. Police, Adjective (Romania); 12. About Elly (Iran); 13. The Wind Journeys (Columbia); 14. The Secret of Her Eyes (Argentina); 15. Samson & Delilah (Australia)

Jordan’s Predictions:

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1.A Prophet (France)
   

2. 2.Mother (Korea)
   

3. 3.The White Ribbon (Germany)
   

4. 4.I Killed My Mother (Canada)
   

5. 5.Terribly Happy (Denmark)
   

In the Running: 06. Baaria (Italy); 07. Samson & Delilah (Australia); 08. Forever Enthralled (China); 09. Police, Adjective (Romania); 10. By the Will of Genghis Khan (Mongolia); 11. Dawson, Island 10 (Chile); 12. Dogtooth (Greece); 13. Max Manus (Norway); 14. The Silent Army (Netherlands); 15. Nobody to Watch Over Me (Japan)

Best Cinematography: 'Beauty' almost always trumps 'innovation' in the Best Cinematography field, and as such, Dion Beebe (“Nine”) would have to be considered the frontrunner for this award. (And that's without taking into account that the film he shot is a musical, perhaps the most Oscar-friendly of all genres.) Likewise Greig Fraser’s work in “Bright Star," a film which probably won’t make it into many of the major categories, but will likely still get attention from the technical branches of the Academy. “The Lovely Bones” as well looks to have a good shot here, and should remain in contention even if the film doesn’t connect in a major way. Two wildcards come in the form of perpetual nominees Bob Richardson (“Inglourious Basterds”) and Roger Deakins (“A Serious Man”). Their respective work may get overshadowed by the more showy competition, but it's likely one of the two will get in. Then of course there's films like “The Hurt Locker” and “The Road,” both visually stark and bracing. The former in particular feels almost like a sure thing. Bruno Delbonnel (“Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince”) and Tom Stern (“Invictus”) also shouldn’t be ruled out, though their respective films must find a way to outshine top tier contenders. And by that token, Christian Berger (“The White Ribbon”) and Lance Acord (“Where the Wild Things Are”) should be thought of as potential threats, as both will have their supporters (I certainly can vouch for the latter). --Jordan Cronk

Matthew’s Predictions:

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1.Bright Star (Greig Fraser)
   

2. 2.Nine (Dion Beebe)
   

3. 3.The Lovely Bones (Andrew Lesnie)
   

4. 4.The Hurt Locker (Barry Ackroyd)
   

5. 5.Where the Wild Things Are (Lance Acord)
   

In the Running: 06. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (Bruno Delbonnel); 07. Precious (Andrew Dunn); 08. The Road (Javier Aguirresarobe); 09. Inglourious Basterds (Robert Richardson); 10. A Serious Man (Roger Deakins); 11. The White Ribbon (Christian Berger); 12. Invictus (Tom Stern); 13. Public Enemies (Dante Spinotti); 14. Avatar (Mauro Fiore); 15. The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus (Nicola Pecorini)

Jordan’s Predictions:

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1.Nine (Dion Beebe)
   

2. 2.The Lovely Bones (Andrew Lesnie)
   

3. 3.Bright Star (Greig Fraser)
   

4. 4.The Hurt Locker (Barry Ackroyd)
   

5. 5.A Serious Man (Roger Deakins)
   

In the Running: 06. Inglourious Basterds (Robert Richardson); 07. The Road (Javier Aguirresarobe); 08. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (Bruno Delbonnel); 09. Where the Wild Things Are (Lance Acord); 10. The White Ribbon (Christian Berger); 11. Broken Embraces (Rodrigo Prieto); 12. Invictus (Tom Stern); 13. Avatar (Mauro Fiore); 14. Precious (Andrew Dunn) 15. Tetro (Mihai Malaimare)

Best Art Direction: The Academy likes to award lavish period films here, but the nominees are usually an eclectic mix of period, fantasy and contemporary films. The movie with the most potential in the former category is “Bright Star,” and a nod here seems almost obligatory. Elsewhere, Rob Marshall’s “Chicago” triumphed here in 2002, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see his latest musical, “Nine,” show up here as well; the lavish sets of Quentin Tarantino’s whacked-out WWII epic, “Inglourious Basterds,” look like they could attract the Academy’s attention; ditto Terry Gilliam’s “The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus”; and I can see the post-apocalyptic nightmare world of “The Road” getting in as well. The Academy has been there and done 'Harry Potter,' which could leave the franchise's 6th installment, “Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince,” out in the cold. --Matthew Lucas

Matthew’s Predictions:

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1.Nine (John Myhre, Gordon Sim)
   

2. 2.Bright Star (Janet Patterson, Charlotte Watts)
   

3. 3.Inglourious Basterds (David Wasco, Sandy Reynolds-Wasco)
   

4. 4.The Road (Chris Kennedy, Robert Greenfield)
   

5. 5.The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus (Dave Warren, Terry Gilliam, Anastasia Masaro...)
   

In the Running: 06. Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (Stuart Craig, Stephanie McMillan); 07. Avatar (Rick Carter, Robert Stromberg); 08. A Serious Man (Jess Gonchor, Nancy Haigh); 09. Public Enemies (Nathan Crowley, Rosemary Brandenburg); 10. Cheri (Alan MacDonald, Judy Farr, Véronique Melery); 11. Star Trek (Scott Chambliss, Karen Manthey); 12. The Young Victoria (Patrice Vermette, Maggie Gray); 13. The Lovely Bones (Naomi Shohan, Jules Cook, Chris Shriver); 14. Invictus (James J. Murakami, Gary Fettis); 15. Where the Wild Things Are (K.K. Barrett, Simon McCutcheon)

Jordan’s Predictions:

Predicted Nominees:

1. 1.Nine (John Myhre, Gordon Sim)
   

2. 2.Inglourious Basterds (David Wasco, Sandy Reynolds-Wasco)
   

3. 3.A Serious Man (Jess Gonchor, Nancy Haigh)
   

4. 4.Bright Star (Janet Patterson, Charlotte Watts)
   

5. 5.Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (Stuart Craig, Stephanie McMillan)
   

In the Running: 06. The Road (Chris Kennedy, Robert Greenfield); 07. The Last Station (Knut Loewe, Patrizia von Brandenstein, Mark Rosinski, Heiki Wolf); 08. The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus (Anastasia Masaro, Caroline Smith, Shane Vieau); 09. Invictus (James Murakami, Gary Fettis); 10. Where the Wild Things Are (K.K Barrett, Simon McCutcheon) 11. Avatar (Rick Carter , Robert Stromberg); 12. Sherlock Holmes (Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer); 13. Public Enemies (Nathan Crowley, Rosemary Brandenberg); 14. The Young Victoria (Patrice Vermette, Maggie Gray); 15. Cheri (Alan MacDonald, Judy Farr, Veronique Melery)

And check out...

• Feature: Chasing Gold: September

• Feature: Chasing Gold: October

Feature By:
Jordan Cronk

Matthew Lucas